The Iran War: A Report

Background

Israeli-Iranian tensions escalated from proxy conflict to direct confrontation starting in 2024. An Israeli air strike on an Iranian consulate annex in Damascus killed two Iranian generals in April 2024, prompting Iran to launch over three hundred drones and missiles at Israel in its first direct strike on Israeli territory. Following Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles against Israel in October 2024, and Israel responded with its largest-ever direct attack on Iran, targeting air defenses and missile production facilities. Combined with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, these losses significantly degraded Iran’s regional “axis of resistance.”

The Twelve-Day War (June 2025)

Israel launched attacks on Iran in June 2025 targeting nuclear facilities, military sites, and regime infrastructure. The United States later joined with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and Iran retaliated on June 23, 2025, by launching 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, an attack that caused no casualties and was followed by diplomatic outreach. A ceasefire was announced on June 24, 2025, structured as 12 hours of Iranian cessation followed by 12 hours of mutual cessation, and despite serious early violations, the truce ultimately held. This conflict demonstrated Israel’s ability to overwhelm Iranian air defenses and damage its military infrastructure with relative ease, leaving Iran considerably weakened heading into 2026.

The 2026 Iran War Begins

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a major series of strikes against Iran, bombing numerous sites in Tehran and across the country. The strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several other senior officials, including the IRGC commander and the defense minister. The conflict, sometimes called the Third Gulf War, began during ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations.

Strikes began midmorning on February 28, with U.S. and Israeli forces conducting joint operations numbering nearly 900 in the first 12 hours alone. Iran’s weakened posture — from sanctions, internal protests, damage from the 2025 war, and the diminished state of its regional allies — led Washington and Israel to calculate that military action now offered better odds than further diplomacy.

Iran responded by launching missiles and drones at Israel and at U.S. bases and other sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, hitting oil and gas facilities and a residential high-rise. Unlike 2025, the 2026 conflict lacked an obvious diplomatic off-ramp, and Iran widened its response across nine countries, striking US military and civilian infrastructure throughout the Gulf. Iran also restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel amid fears of a global energy crisis. The Houthis joined in solidarity, framing their involvement as support for Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias.

Despite the intensity, joint US-Israeli efforts reportedly eliminated as much as three-quarters of Iran’s missile launchers, and by the tenth day of the war Iranian missile and drone attacks had dropped more than 90%.

Ceasefire, Collapse, and Renewed Fighting

After more than five weeks of fighting, the United States and Iran agreed on April 7–8 to a ceasefire that included Israel, mediated by Pakistan. Iran had rejected an initial 45-day framework in favor of its own 10-point peace proposal, and the resulting two-week truce was later extended indefinitely by President Trump on April 21 — though it was violated by both sides from the start.

In the following weeks, the conflict shifted into brinkmanship over the Strait of Hormuz. On June 14, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding meant to formally end the war within 60 days — but in July, fighting resumed after Iran struck three commercial vessels that had bypassed its preapproved shipping route.

By mid-July, the situation had deteriorated further. Although a June 17 memorandum had ostensibly halted hostilities for 60 days, the U.S. military carried out hundreds of strikes on Iran in the weeks that followed at President Trump’s direction, with Iran retaliating in kind. Trump at one point declared the ceasefire “over,” then walked the statement back hours later, saying negotiations could continue. Strait of Hormuz shipping collapsed from roughly 110 vessels a day before the war to a small fraction of that, and GPS spoofing around the strait re-emerged as a hazard to navigation.

Status as of Late July 2026

Over the weekend before July 27, President Trump halted new lethal strikes after 13 days of intensifying attacks, with U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz saying the pause was meant to give room for negotiations. Trump said the halt came at Iran’s request and warned strikes would resume without a new ceasefire deal. Strait of Hormuz traffic remained far below prewar levels — fewer than 10 commodity ships passed through as of that Monday, versus roughly 100 a day before the war — and traders remained wary of Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as an additional risk.

Leadership in Tehran has also been in flux: after Khamenei’s death in the February strikes, his son Mojtaba became the country’s new leader following a dayslong funeral, though he has kept a low public profile since taking power.

Summary

What began as a 12-day war in June 2025 escalated into a far more destructive and open-ended conflict in 2026, marked by the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, sustained attacks across the Gulf region, a global oil-shipping crisis at the Strait of Hormuz, and a string of ceasefires that have repeatedly collapsed. As of the end of July 2026, hostilities are paused but unresolved — U.S. officials describe it as a fragile lull rather than a genuine peace, with both sides signaling readiness to resume fighting if talks fail.

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